WE WILL BE POSTING A SPECIAL TECFIDERA RESEARCH REPORT IN TOMORROW'S NEWS ON MSnewsChannel.com
Tecfidera solidly beating Sanofi's Aubagio and Novartis' Gilenya
BIOGEN'S TECFIDERA SNAPS UP MANAGED CARE COVERAGE FOR MSers EN ROUTE TO BLOCKBUSTER SALES: $192,000,000 IN SALES IN 3 MONTHS
Biogen
Idec's multiple sclerosis pill Tecfidera has had no problem taking the
market by storm since its launch in April. And armed with new
reimbursement data, analysts now say more revenue growth is on the way:
An already-broad reimbursement base should help Tecfidera, a drug
expected to hit peak sales of $3.78 billion, as it competes with rival
pills from Novartis ($NVS) and Sanofi ($SNY).
According to
Leerink Swann analyst Marko Kozul, a survey of 39 pharmacy directors who
make decisions for managed care organizations showed that insurers had
begun coverage of Tecfidera unusually soon after its launch. "While
insurers often wait ~6 months from the time of a new drug launch to
implement meaningful reimbursement, this first survey suggests robust
coverage has already been established," he wrote in a note. That
includes approximately 75% of the 22 million who took Tecfidera in its
first 7 months.
As Kozul points out in the note to investors,
that number bodes well for revenue going forward: He expects $220
million in sales for Q3 and said Leerink's Q4 estimate of $314 million
in sales for the drug may be conservative. That would follow a stellar
launch that led to first-half sales of $192.1 million.
And what's
more, Kozul expects Biogen Idec's decision to provide the drug for free
for up to one year to those with insurance who have been denied
reimbursement will keep them from switching to a competitor's therapy.
Sanofi's Aubagio and Novartis' Gilenya--oral therapies that preceded
Tecfidera on the market--both represent threats, though so far,
Tecfidera has kept them at bay. According to RBC Capital Markets analyst
Michael Yee, Tecfidera is besting the pair with a 13% share of the
market, compared with their combined 12.3%.
With steady total
prescription growth at 20% for the quarter to date, Yee thinks Biogen's
pill could increase its piece of the pie to 15% by the end of this year.
But one major challenge still remains for Tecfidera going forward, and
that's a European launch. While some estimate European sales could
eventually make up 40% of Tecfidera revenues, Biogen has so far held off
because of intellectual property concerns.Labels: Aubagio, Tecfidera
